Scientists Reveal Where Growing Conditions Today Mirror Future Climates, as
World Becomes Living Lab for Adaptation
*Maize farmers in South Africa and soybean growers in China can see
“climate analogues” for 2030 in present-day South America and other places
*
*DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA* (8 December 2011) — With climate change posing a
threat to food production around the world, scientists are developing a
form of virtual time travel that can offer farmers in many countries a
glimpse of their future by identifying regions where growing conditions
today match those that will exist 20 years from now, according to a new
report from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and
Food Security (CCAFS).
“Climate Analogues: Finding Tomorrow’s Agriculture Today” is an effort by
CCAFS to make climate change adaptation a more tangible endeavor by
encouraging the exchange of knowledge between communities around the world
regarding current agriculture practices that can help farmers maintain
productivity in the future, despite potentially dramatic shifts in growing
conditions.
“Climate change will significantly alter growing conditions, but in most
places the new farming environment will not be novel in the global
context,” said Julian Ramirez, a scientist based at the International
Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in Colombia and a lead author of the
study. “Rather, the situation in the future will closely resemble
conditions that already exist in other parts of the world. Making these
links might offer clues about practical, proven approaches that could
enable poor people dependent on agriculture to adapt their farming to
changes in temperature and precipitation.”
For example, according to CCAFS analysis, by 2030, maize producers around
Durban, South Africa—which is hosting the current round of international
climate change negotiations—could face a one degree increase in temperature
during the maize growing season. Studies by Stanford University and others
indicate that such an increase would reduce yields by about 20% in the
absence of adaptive measures. But maize farmers in Argentina and Uruguay
are growing maize successfully today under average temperatures that are
three degrees higher.
Similarly, soybean farmers in Argentina as well as in the central and
southern United States are already managing conditions similar to the ones
that soybean growers around Shanghai, China, will experience within about
20 years.
“If Chinese farmers want to continue growing soybean, they need to look at
the kinds of farming practices and crop varieties that farmers in northern
Argentina and other analogue regions are growing,” said Andy Jarvis, who is
leading the project at CIAT and is also a research theme leader for the
CCAFS.
CCAFS researchers note that the climate analogues tool currently compares
locations based on similarities in precipitation and temperature. It is
also designed to identify analogues based on other features-data on soil
type and even social and economic conditions are incorporated into the tool.
The tool can also be used in the reverse—looking at one particular location
to identify where similar climates might be in 2030. To illustrate the
concept, an analogue of present-day Los Angeles, California shows that the
southern parts of United States’ eastern seaboard and France, northern
Germany, and the Netherlands might experience Hollywood’s traditionally
mild winter months (December to February) by 2030.
In 2012, the research team will pilot a series of farmer exchanges between
sites in East and West Africa and South Asia to help farmers see for
themselves the changes in store and learn about adaptation strategies that
could be applied back home. The farmer-to-farmer exchanges will also help
researchers understand whether successful adaptation options in one place
are indeed transferable to another.
“The analogues tool is rooted in the basic notion that for centuries
farmers have been innovating and adapting in response to shifting
conditions, providing a rich source of information on how agricultural
systems can adapt to climate change,” said Jarvis. “Our goal is to develop
an inventory of local knowledge from around the world while linking regions
that face similar challenges. We are in many ways turning the world into a
laboratory for climate change adaptation.”
“The climate analogues approach to adaption reinforces the broader message
that maintaining food security in a world of dramatic and accelerated
climate shifts will require new commitment to global cooperation,” said
Jarvis.
“As ministers, heads of state and thousands of delegates gather in Durban
to negotiate a future climate deal, agriculture is making its way up the
agenda, but it is still not getting the attention it deserves,” said Bruce
Campbell, director of the CGIAR Climate Program.
“Food security is the bedrock of global stability and with climate change
having such a profound effect on food production, farming must figure
prominently in the Durban negotiations,” Campbell said. “The research
community is developing some exciting ways to deal with both agricultural
adaptation and climate change mitigation, but we need countries to create
the right mix of policies and incentives to help move this work forward.”
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*The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food
Security (CCAFS* ) is a strategic partnership of the CGIAR and the Earth
System Science Partnership (ESSP). CCAFS brings together the world’s best
researchers in agricultural science, development research, climate science
and Earth System science, to identify and address the most important
interactions, synergies and tradeoffs between climate change, agriculture
and food security. For more information, visit www.ccafs.cgiar.org.