THIS IS HOW AIRLINE SEASONS CAN IMPACT ON YOUR TRAVEL PLANS
Byase Luteke
In my previous discussion I gave readers of this column an insight on the
dynamics of airline scheduling and its implications thereof on the
travelers’ plans. In this discourse I would like to shed some light on
airline seasons in terms of weather changes and how they affect demand
generally which ultimately influences airfares and travel trends in general.
There are generally four weather seasons in a year- Spring, summer, autumn
and winter. However, the timings of these seasons differ in accordance with
geographical division of the world. For instance, when it is summertime in
northern hemisphere it is wintertime in the southern hemisphere and the
converse is true. However, in the aviation context, the seasons calendar is
divided in two main parts-Summer and winter. Due to aviation dominance by
the western world the seasons that have been adopted worldwide, i, e summer
and winter, are those relating to Europe and USA. In other words, when we
refer, for example, to the summer timetable, we imply the summer season
pertaining to Europe or USA not Australia or South Africa! Talk of aviation
hegemony!
As a result of the foregoing airline schedules are worked around two
seasons-The winter and summer timetables. The winter timetable for IATA
scheduled airlines commences at midnight on the threshold of the last Sunday
of the month of October and runs through up to midnight ending the last
Saturday of March. In short when the winter timetable begins or ends it’s
also the end or the beginning of the summer timetable respectively. This
means that the summer season as far as the airline industry is concerned
runs from midnight (00:00hours) of the last Sunday of March up to midnight
(23:59 hours) of the last Saturday of October every year. As we all know in
Western Europe, for example, during winter the 24 hour time is adjusted
1hour backwards while during summer the 24 hour time is adjusted forwards
thus all airline timetables have to be adjusted to reflect these changes
accordingly. The dynamics of summer/winter scheduling is beyond the scope of
this discussion.
Similarly the demand and supply in the airline industry can be apportioned
into two big waves or trends- the low and the high season. Globally, demand
for airline seats is generally low during the winter season. This is the
period when there are so many seats in the marketplace chasing after a few
passengers. In order to induce more demand, airline fare managers come up
with discounted fares during the low season to attract passengers in order
to jerk up load factors. Empirical evidence show that in East Africa and
Tanzania in particular airline demand starts falling from mid-September and
is at the lowest during October and starts to rise again in November while
it‘s at its peak from mid-December till mid-January. The reason for the
increased demand during the December-January period is because of the
festive and money-making period during Christmas and New Year. Fares are
very high during this period because the flights are operating at high load
factors.
From mid- January until April it is a lull period businesswise for the
airline industry but February often registers the lowest point in the
seasonality index. This implies that February is the cheapest month to fly
because most airlines are flying at low seat occupancy ratio. It is akin to
an orange harvest season when you have too many oranges chasing relatively
few consumers and therefore going at rock-bottom prices.
From May the demand gradually starts to rise and travel activity becomes
very intense from mid-June to mid-September. This three months period is
known as the high season in the airline parlance. During this time most
airlines are full and because demand surpasses supply, prices tend to go up.
The reason for the increase in demand for airline seats is because during
summer it is time for workers in developed economies to take holidays. Most
workers take time off to travel with their families for holiday-making hence
both scheduled and charter airlines are very busy during this time. This is
the time when also the hospitality industry is very hectic with increased
tourism.
This is the “harvest time” for airlines to make money and most airlines try
to accumulate cash during this period by raising fares to maximize revenue
for the rainy days ahead. “It’s time to make hay when the sun is still
shining” says Mr. Tony Chimpukuso, Tariffs & Industry Manager for Air
Malawi. During the peak season many airlines also impose an embargo to their
staff and their families travelling on rebate tickets (except for duty
travel) in order to allow maximum sales on the flights.
Good as it may be, the high season can be very treacherous if not elusive
for start-up airlines. It‘s not advisable for a start-up airline or any
other airline to initiate a new route during the high season because the
seemingly impressive load factors may actually dupe airline managers into
thinking that this is the trend and therefore adopt the wrong strategies
only to find out that actually the impressive initial load factors were a
result of a spillover from the competition. For example, in 1992 Air
Tanzania had a similar experience when it mounted the intercontinental
flights Mauritius-Dar Es Salaam-Kilimanjaro-Europe and vice versa during the
high season (June-September) with a wet-leased B767-200 aircraft from
Ethiopian Airlines. The twice weekly flights started with impressive
passenger figures sending ATC Management into frenzy and chest thumping but
only for a brief period. As soon as the high season ended so did the
passenger uplifts prompting management into knee-jerk marketing reactions
such as uncoordinated fare dumping in order to stimulate demand which came
to naught. The government eventually pulled the plug on the project and the
Chief Executive was shown the exit door at ATC House.
Neither is it strategic planning to mount new flights during the low season,
say like during October or February when the demand is at its weakest point.
Consistent poor loads factors have a tendency to dampen the morale of the
flight crew especially cabin crew who are a key sales and marketing resource
personnel for airlines in the sense that it is only the cabin crew who
actually interact with every airline customer like VIPs including
Presidents! No other category of airline staff is closer to airline
customers like cabin crew. In this regard, it is important to have people on
board the flight with the right frame of mind about the introductory product
or service lest they send wrong signals to the market. In this case the
timing of a new flight or service is crucial to the success of the same.
Customers especially those planning to travel by air on self sponsorship or
have a constrained budget are well advised to take note or get advice from
airline travel consultants to acquaint themselves about airline seasons and
how they impact on space availability and airfares thereon so that they can
plan the most appropriate time to travel accordingly.