Geneva, Switzerland, 18 September 2011 – The global economic impact of
the five leading non-communicable diseases (NCDs) – cardiovascular
disease (CVD), chronic respiratory disease, cancer, diabetes and
mental ill-health – could total US$ 47 trillion over the next 20
years, according to a study released today by the World Economic
Forum.
The Global Economic Burden of Non-communicable Diseases analyses the
overall costs of NCDs to the global economy. Findings show that the
estimated cumulative output loss over the next 20 years represents
approximately 4% of annual global GDP. While mental ill-health is
typically left off the list of top NCDs, it alone accounts for over
US$ 16 trillion, or one-third, of the overall US$ 47 trillion
anticipated spend on NCDs.
“Think of what could be achieved if these resources were productively
invested in an area like education,” said Professor Klaus Schwab,
Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum. “The need
for immediate action is critical to the future of the global economy.”
More than 60% of deaths worldwide are due to NCDs, killing 36 million
people each year. Low- and middle-income countries are
disproportionately affected. In 2010, 80% of NCD deaths occurred in
those countries, many of them prematurely, at working age. Developing
countries are confronted with an ever-increasing share of this
financial burden, as their economies and populations grow. The global
population beyond the age of 60 is expected to double between now and
2050. This development, coupled with increasing urbanization, means a
sharp increase in NCD rates. The study concludes that the cumulative
costs of CVD, chronic respiratory disease, cancer and diabetes in low-
and middle-income countries are estimated to surpass US$ 7 trillion in
2011-2025, an average of nearly US$ 500 billion per year.
“Until now, we’ve been unable to put a figure on what the World Health
Organization (WHO) calls the ‘world’s biggest killers.’ This study
shows that families, countries and economies are losing people in
their most productive years. The numbers indicate that
non-communicable diseases have the potential to not only bankrupt
health systems but to also put a brake on the global economy. Tackling
this issue calls for joint action by all actors of the public and
private sectors.” says Olivier Raynaud, Senior Director of Health at
the World Economic Forum.
Mental health concerns and CVD alone account for almost 70% of lost
output. In 2010, the global direct and indirect cost of CVD was
approximately US$ 863 billion and is estimated to rise 22% to US$
1,044 billion by 2030. Overall, the cost for CVD alone could be as
high as US$ 20 trillion over the 20 year period. For mental health
conditions, the 2010 global costs were approximately US$ 2.5 trillion,
with the cost projected to surge to US$ 6 trillion by 2030.
Cumulative NCD losses will rise steadily over the next 20 years, but
the rate of increase will pick up sharply by 2030. The value of life
lost, including lost income, out-of-pocket spending related to medical
care and pain and suffering due to NCDs will double between 2010 and
2030.
The report uses three different methods to calculate the economic
burden of NCDs: the World Health Organization’s EPIC model, the Value
of Statistical Life (VSL) approach and the Cost-Of-Illness (COI)
approach. These methods enabled study authors to analyse data from
both a private and societal perspective.
“The challenge of non-communicable diseases goes beyond health
ministries. Policy-makers must understand that these diseases pose a
significant threat to personal as well as to economic well-being and
progress. Non-communicable diseases undermine productivity and result
in the loss of capital and labour,” says study author David Bloom,
member of the World Economic Forum Global Health Advisory Board and
professor at the Harvard School of Public Health. “These costs are
unbearable and clearly call for innovative solutions and an
all-of-society approach, with strong partnerships between government,
the private sector and civil society.”
To a substantial degree, NCDs are caused by tobacco use, harmful use
of alcohol, physical inactivity and poor diet. Strategies for
targeting these risk factors are considered in a companion study
released today by the WHO, which analyses the means and costs of
implementing these measures in low- and middle-income countries.
This assessment of the developmental and financial impact of these
diseases comes as the United Nations convenes the High-Level Meeting
on NCDs in New York on 19-20 September. Heads of State and Government
will assemble to address the prevention and control of NCDs worldwide.
The report released today by the World Economic Forum serves as a
companion piece to another report by the WHO, also released today,
which assesses the cost benefits of different solutions to the NCD
crisis. A joint executive summary for the two reports, highlighting
the complementary findings, is available here.