*Researchers provide clarity on action amid fears of wasted investments and
imprecise science*
** ***BONN, GERMANY (14 JUNE 2013)—*Whether it’s swapping coffee for cocoa
in Central America or bracing for drought in Sri Lanka with a return to
ancient water storage systems, findings from a new report from the CGIAR
Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
chart a path for farmers to adapt to climate shifts despite uncertainties
about what growing conditions will look like decades from now.
As this week’s UN climate talks in Bonn continue to sideline a formal deal
on agriculture, the study, *Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning
for agriculture*, which was published recently in the Proceedings of the
National Academies of
Science
*s (PNAS), *finds that the cloudy aspects of climate forecasts are no
excuse for a paralysis in agriculture adaptation policies.
****
“Climate projections will always have a degree of uncertainty, but we need
to stop using uncertainty as a rationale for inaction,” said Sonja
Vermeulen, head of research at CCAFS and the lead author of the study.
“Even when our knowledge is incomplete, we often have robust grounds for
choosing best-bet adaptation actions and pathways, by building
pragmatically on current capacities in agriculture and environmental
management, and using projections to add detail and to test promising
options against a range of scenarios.”****
** **
The CCAFS analysis shows how decision-makers can sift through the different
gradients of scientific uncertainty to understand where there is, in fact,
a general degree of consensus and then move to take action. Moreover, it
encourages a broader approach to agriculture adaptation that looks beyond
climate models to consider the socioeconomic conditions on the ground.
These conditions, such as a particular farmer’s or community’s capacity to
make the necessary farming changes, will determine whether a particular
adaptation strategy is likely to succeed.****
** **
“Getting farmers, communities, governments, donors and other stakeholders
to embrace various adaptation strategies can end up being equally or more
important than seeking higher levels of scientific certainty from a climate
model,” said Andy Challinor, a professor at the Institute for Climate and
Atmosphere Science, School of Earth and Environment at the University of
Leeds, who co-leads research on climate adaptation at CCAFS and was also an
author of the study. “There is no question that climate science is
constantly improving,” he added. “But scientists also need to understand
the broader processes involved in agriculture adaptation and consider how
we can better communicate what we do know in ways that are relevant to a
diverse audience.”****
** **
The CCAFS study uses examples from the program’s recent work in the
developing world to illustrate how some countries have pursued climate
change adaptation strategies that will that help them prepare for shifts in
growing conditions in the near-term and long-term.
****
Some of the strategies involve relatively straightforward efforts to
accommodate changes in the near-term that will present growing conditions
that are not significantly different from what farmers have experienced in
the past. For example, faced with climate models that predict above normal
precipitation and others that predict it will be below normal, the Sri
Lankan government is working with farmers to revisit traditional approaches
to water storage to provide insurance against what, at the very least, will
be climate variability.****
** **
The authors also explore how, in other parts of the world, adaptation
planning must consider long-term changes that exceed historical experience
and require “wholesale reconfigurations of livelihoods, diets, and the
geography of farming and food systems.” For example, while various climate
models offer different assessments of changes expected in Central America,
they agree that over the long-term, higher temperatures are likely to
render *Arabica*coffee production unsuitable at lower altitudes. “No
regrets” strategies could involve shifting some production to higher
altitudes and, at lower altitudes, switching to a different, but similarly
lucrative crop, like cocoa. ****
** **
*Near-term Adaptation Planning in Sri Lanka: Ancient Water Storage Heads
Off Future Threats*
* *
In Sri Lanka, agriculture accounts for almost one-third of employment and
one-eighth of the gross domestic product (GDP). However, the sector faces
uncertainly in the near-term as projections for precipitation and
temperature vary dramatically. Instead of delaying a decision until more
certainty emerges, government planners looked at the frequency of
historical exposure to climate hazards (droughts, floods, cyclones, et.
al.) and identified the need for improved water management as an
agricultural adaptation strategy that would be beneficial regardless of how
climate changes shaped the precipitation in the future.****
** **
The government then worked with smallholder farmers on a range of adaptive
measures that have addressed agriculture water usage for centuries. Ancient
Sri Lankan kingdoms used large above-ground tanks to collect and store
rainwater for use in drier times; farmers implemented this solution with
great success. Farmers also utilized systems that recycled their household
wastewater and scaled back groundwater use to sustainable levels.****
** **
“In Sri Lanka, adapting without regrets started with knowing farmer
capabilities and vulnerabilities,” noted Challinor. “Despite limited
resources, the government’s adaptation plan is giving farmers a head start
because of its practical approach. Better water capture and management on
the farms is translating to better preparation for more extreme weather
conditions; better food security for the nation is the result.”****
** **
*Long-term Adaptation in Nicaragua: Climate Change Brews a Dark Forecast
for Coffee Farmers*
* *
In the mountains of Nicaragua, coffee constitutes roughly one-quarter of
national agriculture revenues. Growing the popular *Arabica* coffee bean
requires a very specific climate—between 19 to 22 degrees Celsius with
little variation and ample rainfall.****
** **
While future climate scenarios for Nicaragua differ, scientists helped
policy-makers see that all scenarios for 2030 and 2050 showed Arabica’s
climate niche would be significantly affected. The zones suitable for the
crop would move upwards to higher elevations, and in many places the
mountains would not be tall enough to host the crop in the future.****
** **
Rather than move three quarters of the current Arabica cropland, a shift
that would mean disrupting the local ecosystem for new farmland,
policymakers urged farmers to introduce new shade-grown coffee varieties or
switch to cocoa—a crop identified as having similar cash value and suitable
for future growing conditions.****
** **
“In Nicaragua, ‘no-regrets’ adaptation started with the details that
science could provide, which is more than enough to keep policy-makers up
at night,” said Peter Laderach, a climate scientist at the International
Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), based in Managua. “In planning for
climate change, we face all of these variables and uncertainties, but
sometimes what we do know what matters most. By embracing these
certainties, we can help these farmers weather the coming storm and protect
a vital source of income.”****
** **
*Other Nations Step Forward as Vulnerabilities Take Shape*
* *
As short-term and long-range agriculture forecasts reveal disturbing
trends, especially in developing countries, many decision-makers
acknowledge the critical importance of moving forward with climate
adaptation.****
** **
For example, in Kenya, rain-fed agriculture contributes more than
one-quarter of the GDP. Recent droughts have left millions without access
to adequate food and slowed the nation’s economic growth by an annual
average of 2.8 percent between 2008 and 2011. In March 2013, after an
extensive consultation process engaged most sectors of society, Kenya
formally launched its national climate change action plan. ****
** **
“In Kenya, as well as in many countries in Africa and elsewhere in the
developing world, climate change is a critical policy priority,” said James
Kinyangi, regional program leader for CCAFS in East Africa. “It is
imperative for developing nations to embrace the adaptation planning
process and for industrialized countries to unlock much-needed funding
support so that this planning fast tracks climate adaptation actions.”****
** **
“Some farmers and countries are going to need to make big transitions in
what food they produce,” concluded Vermeulen. “Science is now reaching a
point where it will be able to provide advice on when—not just
whether—major climatic shifts relevant to agriculture will happen. Helping
governments and farmers plan ahead will make all the difference in avoiding
the food insecurity and suffering that climate change threatens.”****
** **
###****
** **
*About CCAFS*
The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
(CCAFS) is a strategic partnership of CGIAR and Future Earth, led by the
International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). CCAFS brings together
the world’s best researchers in agricultural science, development research,
climate science and earth system science, to identify and address the most
important interactions, synergies and tradeoffs between climate change,
agriculture and food security. For more information, visit
www.ccafs.cgiar.org.****
** **
*Read the journal article*
** **
Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture by Sonja J.
Vermeulen, Andrew J. Challinor, Philip K. Thornton, Bruce M. Campbell,
Nishadi Eriyagama, Joost M. Vervoort, James Kinyangi, Andy Jarvis, Peter
Läderach, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Kathryn J. Nicklin, Ed Hawkins, and
Daniel R. Smith. 2013. *PNAS* vol. 110 no. 21.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1219441110****
** **