Following military takeovers in five different African countries in the past year, some have suggested that democracy may not be the best form of government on the continent. But here, Leonard Mbulle-Nziege and Nic Cheeseman argue that – despite these set-backs – democracy is the way forward for Africa.
Africa has been hit by a spate of coups that threaten to take it back to the 1980s and the era of military rule. Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Sudan and Mali have all seen the government overthrown and replaced with a military junta.
The situation could have been even more alarming, because failed coup attempts have been reported in the Central African Republic and, just days ago, Guinea-Bissau.
With every country that gets added to this list, the voices claiming that democracy isn’t working – and can’t work – in Africa grow louder. After all, the overthrow of civilian presidents was followed by street celebrations in some countries as citizens cheered the downfall of elected leaders.
But while it is tempting to interpret the spate of coups as evidence that democracy in Africa is dying, that would be a mistake. Even in the countries in which a coup has taken place, a majority of citizens want to live in a democracy and reject authoritarian rule.
What is more, despite growing frustration with the way that multiparty politics is performing, on average democracies generate higher economic growth and do a better job of providing public services, according to a study at the US’s Cornell University.
By contrast, military regimes have a long history of abusing human rights while presiding over economic stagnation.
Put another way, Africa can and does reap a democratic dividend – the problem comes when supposedly democratic leaders start to use undemocratic strategies to keep themselves in power against the wishes of their people.
This is a critical point. In countries like Guinea and Mali, leaders did not lose popularity because they established genuine democracies that failed because this system of government is somehow incompatible with African realities. Instead, presidents atrophied support because they undermined their own democratic credentials in a context of rising instability and – in the case of Burkina Faso and Mali – jihadist insurgencies.
This becomes clear if we go beyond the headlines to ask why some of the recent coups have been publicly celebrated.
In Guinea, former President Alpha Condé controversially modified the constitution in 2020 to allow him to run for a third term in office. This was an unpopular strategy, particularly because neither the constitutional referendum nor the general election that he subsequently won were free and fair.
Mr Condé had also become increasingly authoritarian in the months leading up to the coup, jailing and exacting violence against his political opponents and anti-government activists.
Similarly, former Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta was accused of rigging the 2020 legislative elections. In addition to concerns over growing corruption and rising insecurity, this undermined his personal legitimacy.
In both countries, civilian leaders lost popularity in part because they departed from democracy, not simply because citizens lost faith with it.
Indeed, it is telling that while many people supported the coups that removed Mr Condé and Mr Keïta, the most recent surveys conducted by Afrobarometer found that 76% of Guineans and 70% of Malians reject military rule.
That the same surveys also find that support for democracy stands at 77% in Guinea, 70% in Burkina Faso and 62% in Mali – further evidence that citizens backed military intervention in the hope that it would pave the way for a more effective form of civilian government, not because they aspire to live under authoritarian rule.
Tellingly, where coups have been seen to usurp processes of democratization, they have been deeply unpopular.
In Sudan, for example, thousands of people took to the streets to protest against a military power grab in 2021 that undermined the supposed transition of power into civilian hands following the removal of long-time leader Omal al-Bashir in 2019. Despite the fact that hundreds of people have been injured and at least 79 killed, the Sudanese people continue to demand their democratic rights.
One reason that democracy may remain the favoured political system for so many African societies – even in countries where it has yet to be realised – is the poor performance of authoritarian governments.
Rwanda is often cited as an example of what a “strong man” can do in the African context – delivering economic growth while reducing corruption.