CHELU MATUZYA: High levels of poverty, dependence on rain-fed
agriculture and poor infrastructure make African countries including
Tanzania to feature prominently as more immediately vulnerable to
climate change.
A new report published by the International Food Policy Research
Institute(IFPRI) says that negative effects of climate change on crop
production are especially pronounced in
Sub-Saharan Africa, as the agriculture sector accounts for a large
share of GDP, export
earnings, and employment in most African countries.
The vast majority of
the poor who reside in rural areas depend on agriculture for their
livelihoods and would be early victims of climate change, it says.
Crop yield projections show that by 2050 most of Sub-Saharan Africa
would have seen yield drops for rice, wheat and
maize yields by up to 14 per cent, 22 per cent and five per cent
respectively as a
result of climate change.
The report also highlights unreliability of irrigation water supply,
while the ratio of water consumption to requirements is
expected to worsen in Sub-Saharan Africa due to climate change.
Without pernicious effects of climate change, calorie availability
would have risen noticeably between 2000 and 2050, but with these
effects starting to set in, food availability in the region
will average 500 calories less per person by 2050, a 21 per cent decline.
“In a no-climate change scenario, only Sub-Saharan sees an increase
in the number of
malnourished children between 2000 and 2050, from 33 to 42 million.
Climate change
will further increase this number by over 10 million, resulting in 52
million malnourished
children by 2050,” the study observed.
Additional investments to increase agricultural productivity can
compensate for many of
the adverse effects of climate change, it further stated.
Sub-Saharan Africa needs 40 per cent of the
estimated seven billion USD per year in additional global
agricultural investments, most of it for rural roads.
Agricultural productivity investment of USD 7.1billion to $7.3 billion
is needed to raise calorie consumption enough to offset the negative
impact of climate change on health and well-being of children.
Even without climate change greater investment in agricultural science
and technology is needed to meet the demand of a world population
expected to reach 9 billion by 2050, it said.
“Many of these people will live in the developing world have higher
incomes and desire a more diverse diet. Agriculture science and
technology-based solutions are essential to meet those demands,” the
report added.
Ends