By Edson Baraukwa | Africa Guardian
As Donald Trump secured a second term as U.S. president, leaders across Africa quickly sent their congratulations. Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa tweeted that the country was “ready to work” with Trump, while Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu expressed hopes for “reciprocal economic and development partnerships” between Africa and the U.S.
But what does Trump’s return mean for Africa? While his first term saw criticisms of his Africa policy—ranging from reduced funding and immigration restrictions to his infamous “shithole countries” comment—Trump also launched initiatives aimed at boosting investments on the continent.
His approach to Africa in this new phase remains uncertain. Joe Biden’s administration worked hard to demonstrate that Africa was a key U.S. partner, though it struggled to deliver substantial deals. For instance, the U.S. was praised for investing in Africa’s Lobito Corridor, a rail line vital for transporting raw materials, with a total of more than $22 billion invested since Biden took office.
However, concerns are growing that Trump may reverse these investments. His protectionist “America First” stance could see the U.S. pulling back on African trade partnerships. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which enables duty-free access to U.S. markets for some African goods, is due for renewal in 2025. Trump had previously signaled that he would not extend it.
A move to implement a universal 10% tariff on foreign-made goods, a promise made during his 2024 campaign, could make African exports to the U.S. more expensive and reduce their market share. South Africa, a major beneficiary of Agoa, may face an economic setback, although estimates suggest only a minimal impact on its GDP.
Despite these concerns, Trump’s administration launched Prosper Africa and the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) in 2018 to foster trade and investment in Africa. These initiatives continue to function today, and with China’s growing influence on the continent, Trump may be cautious about rolling them back entirely.
On the aid front, the U.S. remains Africa’s largest donor, contributing nearly $3.7 billion in 2023. However, Trump’s administration sought significant cuts to foreign aid. Although these were blocked by Congress, a Republican-led majority in Congress following the 2024 elections might lead to more successful attempts to reduce aid.
Trump’s stance on immigration also affects Africa. His campaign promises include deporting one million undocumented migrants, a policy that concerns Africans, especially given the rising number of African migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border. His administration previously imposed travel restrictions on several African nations, including Nigeria and Tanzania.
Trump’s potential handling of Africa’s security challenges is another key concern. As Russia has expanded its influence across Africa by supplying arms to countries battling jihadist militants, some are wondering if Trump will intervene to counter Russia’s growing presence. While Trump has a complicated relationship with Russia, he has previously shown a willingness to assist African countries in their security needs, like when he approved the sale of Tucano jets to Nigeria in their fight against Boko Haram.
However, Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy raises doubts about how deeply involved he will be in addressing Africa’s security crises, such as the ongoing civil war in Sudan.
Ultimately, what Africa can expect from Trump’s second term remains unclear. As W. Gyude Moore of the Center for Global Development notes, Trump is “unorthodox,” so African leaders will need to be prepared for both new opportunities and challenges.
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