Edson Baraukwa | Africa Guardian
As Donald Trump prepares to assume office as President of the United States, his anticipated Africa policy raises questions, particularly regarding South Africa, while the broader implications for the continent remain uncertain.
A Tougher Stance on South Africa
Trump is expected to adopt a stricter stance toward South Africa, with several key figures in his administration voicing concerns about Pretoria’s alignment with Russia, China, and Iran. Peter Pham, a seasoned Africa policy expert and Trump’s likely pick for Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, has emphasized the importance of reciprocity in trade agreements. He has criticized the Biden administration for overlooking South Africa’s geopolitical positioning while allowing it to remain the largest beneficiary of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
Pham’s views align with those of Trump’s national security nominees—Marco Rubio, Michael Waltz, and Elise Stefanik—who have expressed unease over South Africa’s perceived alignment with Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran. The incoming US Ambassador to South Africa, Ebrahim Rasool, faces significant challenges in maintaining AGOA benefits and fostering positive bilateral relations. Rasool has hinted at potential common ground with Trump on issues like NATO and the Ukraine conflict but acknowledges the difficulties ahead.
Africa Beyond South Africa
Trump’s approach to the rest of Africa remains less defined but could reflect broader strategic concerns. Key appointments, such as Joe Foltz to the National Security Council’s Africa desk, indicate a focus on countering Russian and Chinese influence on the continent. Pham has pointed out that Russia’s growing presence in the Sahel, often through Wagner Group deployments, and China’s dominance in critical mineral supply chains are immediate threats to US interests.
Trump’s administration may prioritize offering African nations a more attractive value proposition than rivals like China and Russia, particularly in regions with strategic importance. However, his isolationist tendencies could limit long-term commitments to addressing security and humanitarian crises, as seen in his first term’s withdrawal of US forces from Somalia.
Economic Engagement Over Aid
Economically, Trump’s policies are likely to emphasize commerce over aid. Pham has highlighted Trump’s interest in reviving negotiations for a free trade agreement with Kenya and supporting infrastructure projects like the Lobito Corridor, which aims to redirect critical minerals from Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo away from China. These initiatives suggest Trump’s Africa policy will prioritize economic partnerships that align with US strategic goals.
Challenges and Unpredictability
Trump’s foreign policy is often characterized as transactional and unpredictable, which could complicate efforts to implement a consistent Africa strategy. While some analysts remain optimistic about the continuity of initiatives like PEPFAR and increased commercial engagement, others warn that Trump’s renewed focus on competition with global powers may overshadow concerns for human rights, humanitarian aid, and environmental issues.
As Trump’s administration takes shape, the interplay of strategic interests, economic priorities, and ideological leanings will define the US-Africa relationship, with South Africa likely facing the greatest scrutiny. Whether this approach strengthens or destabilizes US influence across the continent remains to be seen.
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